The latest news about the International Criminal Court’s decision to move away from Microsoft software in favor of European open-source solutions—and the unexpected public reaction to OpenAI’s changes to its policy on medical and legal advice—illustrate one broader trend: society has already become deeply dependent on large technology platforms.
Today’s “noise” and the emotional response of ChatGPT users to restrictions on providing medical and legal advice clearly demonstrate that neural-network tools are now embedded in everyday and professional workflows. One could even say that, for many, the absence of instant access to such tools is already painful. But it is far more important to look ahead—to a five-year horizon.
The 2030 Scenario
Imagine the year 2030. Whether you believe in the imminent arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) or consider it a utopia, one thing is indisputable: the integration of large language models into daily life and work processes will only increase. If users’ reactions are already this intense today, it is easy to imagine the scale of potential consequences in five years, when LLMs will not merely be auxiliary tools but full-fledged participants in workflows across medicine, law, education, science, and government.
The Monopolization Problem
The monopolization of the market by the largest U.S. tech companies—OpenAI, Google (Gemini), Anthropic, and others—has already laid the groundwork for future problems. The lack of alternatives—de facto vendor lock-in—places entire industries at real risk of grinding to a halt in the event of sanctions, technological restrictions, or political decisions. Recall the International Criminal Court and its preventive decision to leave U.S. software precisely due to sanctions risks.
The Critical Gap
We must state plainly: the absence today of a genuine open-source alternative comparable in quality to Silicon Valley solutions is not just worrying; it directly threatens the stability and independence of entire countries and sectors. If, in the coming years, the situation with open models and the development of alternative technological ecosystems does not change drastically, the world risks facing a new kind of dependency whose consequences are hard to overestimate.
A Call to Action
These two events should serve as a catalyst for a deep professional and public discussion about how to ensure digital sovereignty, access to key technologies, and real competition in the AI solutions market. Otherwise, five years from now we may find ourselves in a situation where reliance on a single point of access turns from a theoretical risk into a critical problem.